While Major League Baseball awaits Jason Heyward to sign with a team and open up the market there was a trade last night made by the Diamondbacks to acquire Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves.
Unless you have been living under a rock and just haven’t been following baseball, last year the Cardinals and Braves swapped Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. The Cardinals needed a right fielder and the Braves knew going forward they couldn’t afford Heyward and their other players and began the rebuilding process they currently sit at today.
Last year, I thought the Braves had won the deal. During the season I thought the Braves had won the deal. Even at the very end of the season, when Heyward might have had his most rounded season to-date, I thought the Braves had won the deal. I thought four years (more like three if you do the subtraction of Miller and Heyward’s years) and six years of team control of Jenkins were worth far more than one year of Heyward.
Sure, the deal made sense. Miller needed new scenery and apparently had taken some issues with the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The Cardinals, at the time, had a surplus of pitching and were looking to bring in a game-changing player.
Miller, 25, is coming-off a solid season for the offensively inept Atlanta Braves. His record doesn’t indicate how well he did on the field. His 2015 campaign went to the tune of 6-17, 3.02 ERA, 33 games started, 205 innings pitched, 73 walks, 171 strikeouts, 1.247 WHIP.
He posted career bests in ERA, games started, strikeouts and even threw two complete games.
During his prospect days some considered him to be the next ace and to take over for Wainwright as he aged. Yet, he struggled with his command for most of 2014 and wasn’t a reliable starter in the post-season for the club.
Braves maximize his potential value.
Right now Miller is not an ace. It’s likely that he becomes an established No. 2 starter for any ball-club he would pitch for. He isn’t a major strikeout pitcher and would need to reduce his WHIP, FIP and ERA+ before becoming an ace.
Yet, there is belief that he could become that type of pitcher and Atlanta capitalized on that value.
Last night the Braves and Diamondback swapped Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier for Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair and Dansby Swanson.
This is the type of package that would be involved for a pitcher like Jose Fernandez, not Shelby Miller.
- Ender Inciarte – 25
- .303/.338/.408, 4 home runs, 26 walks, 58 strikeouts, 21 stolen bases
- Rated 4th in defensive WAR for left fielders in 2015, 6th in 2014
- Earliest free agency, 2021
- .303/.338/.408, 4 home runs, 26 walks, 58 strikeouts, 21 stolen bases
- Aaron Blair – 23
- Drafted 36th overall in the 2013 draft.
- Power-righty, close-to MLB ready
- Fastball sits low-to-mid 90s, good change-up
- Dansby Swanson – 21
- First overall pick in 2015 draft
- True top of  the order bat, plus speed
- Projected to go through minor league system quickly
The Braves were not going to be competitive for at least two of the three years remaining before Shelby Miller becomes a free agent. By then, he might not be necessary as the Braves farm system strength is their pitching.
Now they have added another pitcher, a solid defensive outfielder and a short stop that projects highly.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been searching for a pitcher to their liking on the market, but haven’t found their suitor at this point. Heyward might elect to go somewhere else in free agency and the rumor mill still has the Chicago Cubs might be involved, even after signing Ben Zobrist.
For one year of Heyward the Braves have Jenkins, Inciarte, Blair and Swanson. For one year of Heyward the Cardinals might have got, one year of Heyward (and draft pick if he leaves).
While it is impossible to know what would have happened if Miller would have stayed with the Cardinals. Sports speculation is what helps to make sports so much fun. The winners, losers and fall-out years later from every trade.
The fallout is becoming more evident by this trade. With Heyward still on the loops the Cards might turn towards Randal Grichuk (they didn’t trust him last year to start in right field) to fill that void.
The Cardinals have lost John Lackey to free agency and someone will have to fill his 200 innings on the mound. Same goes for Lance Lynn who will be out in 2015.
As of now the Cardinals turn towards younger arms. Those same arms that started to give out at the end of 2015.
If the Cardinals do not sign Heyward it could become a bigger loss than what it already is.
Time will tell.
