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2021 Houston Astros Preview

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2020 finish: 29-31, 2nd in AL West, lost 4-3 in ALCS to the Rays

Key additions: Michael Brantley (re-sign), Ryne Stanek (FA TB), Pedro Baez (FA LAD), Jake Odorizzi (FA MIN)

Key subtractions: George Springer (FA TOR), Josh Reddick (FA), Roberto Osuna (FA)

 

2020 was a challenging year for most people, as was true for the Astros. Fresh off the sign stealing scandal in which the team fired Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch, the team “lucked” out that there were no fans in attendance all season. However, fans don’t forget things quickly. With the return of fans in 2021, it will be interesting to see how they react, especially opposing fans. I’ve spoken to a couple Astro fans and they hate what happened and don’t agree with it. Fans of other teams, especially the of the Yankees and Dodgers, since those were the two of the teams that were directly involved, have lashed out their hatred for the Astros and Rob Manfred on what they call a light punishment. Light punishment or not, it’s done with. I do think there are more teams that have or are doing similar cheating. Due to all of this, MLB banned in-game video in the clubhouse. That had a direct effect on some of the Astros players, not because they cheated, but because many players, Astros included, rely on the video to make in-game adjustments. Will Houston have a problem or could they blast off back to the playoffs in 2021?

 

Three-Fourths of the infield were at the center of the controversy. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman all became public enemy #1, more so Correa since he was outspoken about doing nothing wrong. Overall, those 3 each had down seasons compared to what we are used to seeing. What’s tough to figure out is was their down season due to them not cheating or was it because of the lack of in-game video. With it returning this year, I do think they will all have better seasons. Carlos Correa is entering his walk year, has been on the record saying that he wants an extension prior to Opening Day, which is 2 days away. He recently rejected a $120M extension, which likely means he is certainly looking for more money. I do think he will have a much better season. Health has been his biggest downfall so if he could stay healthy, he could be looking at a 30 home run season. Alex Bregman also struggled but had the best overall season of the 3 as he was still able to produce a 116 OPS+, which is his worst since his rookie season. He has hit 31 and 41 home runs respectfully the last two seasons. I could see another 30+ home run season from Bregman. Altuve had the worst season of the 3. Not only was it the worst season of the 3, it was the worst season of Altuve’s career. It could be due to the fact that Altuve was at the center of the scandal and was even accused of wearing a buzzer, so he mentally wasn’t quite there. Like Correa and Bregman, I do think he bounces back and has a great season. Then you have Yuli Gurriel. He’s one that doesn’t impress you with any of his skills, but he just does them well. He is getting up there in age, turning 37 during the season. His poor 2020 could be a sign of things to come with his age.

 

The Astros lost 2017 WS MVP George Springer to free agency this offseason. Myles Straw will take his place in center. He is not the same type of player Springer was. Straw is a speedster with little pop. He is one of the favorites in the AL to lead in stolen bases. The Astros brought back left fielder Michael Brantley. Brantley was rumored to sign with the Blue Jays, but had a change of heart at the last minute. Brantley was riddled with injuries later in his Indians career. While he hasn’t returned to his prior injury self, he has been an extremely solid player, reaching the All Star Game in each season after. He likely would have been an All Star last year, had there been a game. He’s good for 20+ home runs, and a near .300 average. In right, Kyle Tucker had one of the most productive seasons last year for the Astros. He had a strong finish to the 2019 season and continued that into 2020. He’s entering his age 24 season and many people are expecting big things from him. He should be a 20/20 player with an outside chance at 30/30. Yordan Alvarez is back at DH after missing all of 2020 due to his knees. He has massive power and could reach 40 home runs if he stays healthy. 

 

Projected lineup via Fangraphs

Jose Altuve 2B

Michael Brantley LF

Alex Bregman 3B

Carlos Correa SS

Yordan Alvarez DH

Yuli Gurriel 1B

Kyle Tucker RF

Myles Straw CF

Martin Maldonado C

 

The Astros rotation took a hit last year when Justin Verlander missed most of the season with a forearm issue, which then led to Tommy John surgery late in the season. While he wants to pitch in 2021, the Astros will likely bring him along slowly and will likely not pitch this year. Zack Greinke is now the head of the staff. He’s 37 and coming off a so-so 2020 going 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA, striking out 67 in 67 innings. He is one where we need to watch because of age. He’s not a power pitcher by any means, more of a finesse pitcher, but you never know how pitchers will be when they age. The ERA could hover around 4. Lance McCullers, Jr. is finally healthy and he has been productive. Now that he has a season under his belt after returning from Tommy John surgery, his numbers should improve. He is one that could take a big leap forward this season. Cristian Javier finished the 2020 season 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year after finishing with a 3.48 ERA, 54 strikeouts in 54.1 innings. Jose Urquidy is one to watch out for in 2021. I am expecting a big season from Urquidy. He is coming off of a 2.73 ERA. While he doesn’t strike out many guys, he keeps the ball on the ground. It was expected that Framber Valdez to be the 5th guy in the rotation but a fractured finger changed those plans. So they went out and signed Jake Odorizzi. Valdez then sought a 2nd opinion since surgery was initially recommended, but now, it has shown major improvement, so there is now a chance he will return in 2021. 

 

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Zack Greinke

Lance McCullers, Jr

Cristian Javier

Jose Urquidy

Jake Odorizzi

Ryan Pressly – closer

 

Prospects you should know

Forrest Whitley – injury concerns have held him back and are continuing to hold him back as he is having Tommy John surgery, which will hold him out at least a year.

 

Pedro Leon – signed as an international free agent this past Jan out of Cuba. Has the talent to be a top-10 pick if he was in the MLB Draft. 

 

Worst case scenario – The return of fans gets in their heads, 3rd place, closer to 4th than 2nd

Best case scenario – Better overall season than last year. Division title not out of reach. In-game video in the dugout helps guys like Altuve, Bregman, and Correa.

My prediction – 3rd in AL West

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