Home Baseball 2021 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

2021 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

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2020 finish: 43-17, 1st in NL West, World Series Champions

Key additions: Trevor Bauer (FA CIN), Justin Turner (re-signed), Blake Treinen (re-signed), Tommy Kahnle (FA NYY), Corey Knebel (trade MIL)

Key subtractions: Alex Wood (FA SF), Pedro Baez (FA HOU), Joc Pederson (FA CHC), Jake McGee (FA SF), Kike Hernandez (FA BOS)

 

For the first time since 1988, the Los Angeles Dodgers are World Series Champions! Prior to the season, they traded for potential free agent Mookie Betts and then immediately signed him to a massive 12 year, $365M extension. With the addition of him, the health of Corey Seager, and some big seasons from key players, they were the best team all season. They had the most wins with 43 and were one of two teams that had 40. The Rays were the other team, and they met up in the Fall Classic. This offseason, some wondered what they would do. Turner was a free agent and ultimately re-signed, but they were reportedly interested in trading for Nolan Arenado. They did make a huge splash by signing reigning Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer to a 3 year, $102M deal. Will Los Angeles continue to Dodge the other teams and change their name to Win Angeles?

 

The Dodgers have 3 legit MVP candidates heading into 2021. Corey Seager is one of them as he had a huge season last year. He’s finally healthy, something he has struggled with early on in his career. He’s now entering his walk year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers sign him to an extension at some point. The former Rookie of the Year finished 9th in MVP voting last year and that could springboard him to having a huge 2021. He has a chance to hit .300 and 30 home runs which would set him up nicely for a huge payday. The Dodgers bring back Justin Turner. Turner brought some controversy to the team as they won the World Series, when he was pulled late in the game after testing positive for Covid. He then returned to the field to celebrate, at times unmasked. The Dodgers then had a handful of positive tests days after, whether that was directly linked to Turner, I don’t know. He dealt some injuries the past few seasons, but he has still been pretty productive. He’s entering his age 36 season so his power numbers may be declining but should still be good for a good average and 15 home runs. Gavin Lux has struggled in the bigs so far and only hit .175 last year. This spring he is hitting the cover off the ball. He hit his first home run in Sunday’s game and has 6 RBI, all while hitting .356. He’ll likely hit at the bottom of the order, which could mean he’ll see some pitches to hit. If he can continue his hot streak into the season, he could be a 20 home run guy. Max Muncy, to me, is an unconventional player. If you see him on the street, you wouldn’t think he would be a major league baseball player. He can play multiple positions but will be spending most of his time at 1B. He struggled at times last season but was still able to put up some good power numbers. He has put up 35 home runs in each of the last full seasons and should be able to put up 30+ again this year. 

 

I mentioned the Dodgers have 3 legitimate candidates for MVP. The other two are in the outfield and are former MVPs themselves. Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger both won in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Bellinger, fresh off his MVP, had a down season in 2020. He started slow but seemed to pick things up as the season progressed. Didn’t hit for much power the last month of the season but increased his average and on-base percentage. He’s likely hitting in the heart of the lineup and will be one of the leaders of the offense. He clobbered 47 home runs during his MVP season and could be in line for another 40 homers. It’s hard to believe he’s only 25 as it seems like he’s been in the league for many years already. Mookie Betts finished runner up to Freddie Freeman in MVP voting last year. You could have made a case for Betts to win too. Betts does everything right and is a 5 tool player. He can give you 25+ home runs, 15-25 stolen bases, hits for average, excellent defender. Still only 28, he’s now under contract though the age of 39. Being that his contract is backloaded, I could see this deal potentially turn out bad but the next 5 seasons, at least, will all be spectacular seasons for Betts. In leftfield, AJ Pollock now shouldn’t have to deal with competition to play with the departure of Joc Pederson. He should now be the everyday player. Given this, he could give you numbers similar to what he put up when he was in Arizona, with the exception of stolen bases. 

 

Projected lineup via Fangraphs

Mookie Betts RF

Corey Seager SS

Justin Turner 3B

Cody Bellinger CF

Will Smith C

Max Muncy 1B

AJ Pollock LF

Gavin Lux 2B

 

The Dodgers already had one of the best rotations in the 2020 season, so what do they do in the offseason? Go out and sign the reigning Cy Young winner to a ludacris 3 year, $108M deal. He will be making $40M this season, which is more than 3 teams in 2021: the Pirates, Orioles, & Indians. That is insane. If he opts into his contract for 2022, he will then be making $45M! He has said in the past that he will only play for 1 year contracts so I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he opts out after this season. Bauer has toyed with hitters this spring, striking guys out with shutting one eye. He has been extremely solid striking out 28 guys in 23.1 IP, but he does have a 4.24 ERA. Come time for the regular season though, expect the LA native to get in a groove and be in Cy Young contention again. Walker Buehler could also be in contention for his first Cy Young but he needs to improve his stamina. He only pitched 36.2 innings last year, which could be because they were keeping his arm fresh for the shortened season. He did pitch north of 180 innings in 2020, but I would like to see him close to 200. That likely won’t happen this season since we are coming off of that shortened season and I don’t really know what to expect how teams will treat their pitchers. He does have all the makings for a Cy Young though. Great K rate, good walk rate, and doesn’t allow many hits. Should he win one this year, he would be the 4th starter in their rotation to earn one. Clayton Kershaw has 3 to his name and while he likely won’t get back to the old Kershaw, he has seemingly reinvented himself. His velocity has decreased, but that hasn’t stopped him from striking guys out. He’s becoming more of a finesse pitcher with great stuff. That curve ball is still knee buckling. David Price was also brought over in the Betts deal, but opted out in 2020. He also has a Cy Young award on his mantle. He definitely isn’t the same pitcher he was when he signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. There is also a possibility he could be pitching out of the pen (which he said he’s fine with anything to help the team) in favor of Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin but for now, he’s penciled in the 5 spot. The guy that struck out the final batter of the World Series out of the pen, Julio Urias, is set for another year in the rotation and is poised for a breakout season. Debuting at the age of 19, he’s now entering his age 24 season and many around the league expect him to make a big jump this year. 

 

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Clayton Kershaw

Trevor Bauer

Walker Buehler

Julio Urias

David Price

Kenley Jansen – closer

 

Prospects you should know

Josiah Gray – electric fastball and slider and could make an impact in 2021

Michael Busch – think Max Muncy, but better average

 

Worst case scenario – This is no doubt a playoff team. Worst case? On the road in the Wild Card game.

Best case scenario – No team since the Yankees of 98-00 have won back to back World Series. Dodgers have the best case since to change that. 

My prediction – 1st in NL West

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