2021 Tampa Bay Rays Preview

2020 finish – 40-20, 1st in AL East, lost in 4-2 in World Series to the Dodgers

Key additions: Mike Zunino (re-signed), Luis Patino (trade SD), Michael Wacha (FA NYM), Chris Archer (FA PIT), Rich Hill (FA MIN), Collin McHugh (FA HOU), Francisco Mejia (trade SD), 

Key subtractions: Blake Snell (trade SD), Hunter Renfroe (FA BOS), Charlie Morton (FA ATL), Nate Lowe (trade TEX), Jose Alvarado (trade PHI)

In 2019, the Rays surprised some people by making the playoffs. Many thought they would take a step back in 2020. I for one, thought they would be an extremely tough team in 2020. Indeed they were. They were one of two teams, and the only team in the AL, to win 40+ games in the shortened season. They actually met the other team in the World Series. Manager Kevin Cash has been a genius with his analytics. However, that came to bite him in the (rear) end. In a do or die Game 6 for the Rays, Blake Snell was cruising, until he reached the top of the Dodger lineup for the 3rd time. That’s when Kevin Cash took him out. The Dodgers pounced on that opportunity and wound up winning. Could sunny times return for the Rays in 2021?

Ji-man Choi had already taken over most of the 1B duties away from Nate Lowe. Now that Lowe has been traded to the Rangers. It’s all Choi’s, if he’s healthy. He’s currently fighting a knee issue but feel’s he is back to normal. Rays are going to be cautious and start him on the IL. Yandy Diaz and Yoshi Tsutugo will likely split time at 1B. Of players who had at least 95 batted ball events, Yandy Diaz had the lowest launch angle at -7.9 degrees. He is actually one of 3 players that had a negative launch angle. Brandon Lowe broke out last year and can play multiple positions. He primarily played 2B last year but him and Joey Wendle, who played 3B, will likely switch spots. Lowe (rhymes with how) has 20 home run potential. For those that play fantasy, he has multiple position eligibility so he could be one that you target for 2B. Joey Wendle is a good contact hitter that sprinkles in a few home runs here and there. Willy Adames was one of the key additions in the David Price trade. He is starting to come into his own. He has 20 home run potential each year, can hit roughly .260. 

While he might see some time in the outfield, Austin Meadows will see the majority of his time as the team’s DH. He struggled last year after being diagnosed with Covid. He seemingly has fully recovered and should be in for a big year. He has MVP-esque potential. He’s only 25 and is still blossoming as a hitter. In center, one of the best defensive players in the game plays in the Trop. Kevin Kiermaier was also one of the 3 players (along with Yandy Diaz, mentioned above, and Washington’s Luis Garcia) with a negative launch angle. He doesn’t provide a whole lot offensively though. However, if he can get on base, he can steal you a few bases. In right field, Manuel Margot is a speedy guy with some pop. He could give you 15-15 type numbers. In left field was the story of the postseason. Randy Arozarena set the record for most postseason home runs in a single postseason with 10 as well as most hits, 29, in a single postseason. He won the MVP of the ALCS going .321/.367/.786 with 9 hits, 4 home runs, and 6 RBI. Still considered a prospect, many websites struggled where to place Arozarena. He played well late in the regular season too, but just exploded in the playoffs. We shouldn’t expect the playoff version but he should be a very productive player. 25 home runs, maybe .275 average, with 15 swipes.

Projected lineup via Fangraphs

Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B (until Ji-man Choi is healthy)

Randy Arozarena LF

Austin Meadows DH

Brandon Lowe 3B

Manuel Margot RF

Joey Wendel 2B

Willy Adames SS

Kevin Keirmaier CF

Mike Zunino C

The Rays shipped out ace and former Cy Young winner Blake Snell as well as declined the option on Charlie Morton. In the past couple years, the Rays have really only had a 4 man rotation, using the 5th spot as a bullpen game. Ryan Yarbrough could still be that opener and I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue that route because for the most part, they’ve been successful. Tyler Glasnow is now the ace and he has put up elite numbers, even though his ERA has been slightly elevated. He had a 14.3 K rate,which was up 3 whole strikeouts. He’s finally healthy and it shows. Look for him to get into Cy Young contention this year. Chris Archer is back with the Rays. What a trade that was for the Rays. In 2018 season, the Rays traded Archer for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz. Even then, the entire industry thought the Rays won that trade by a landslide, it’s even more so now with Archer signing with the Rays. He wasn’t very productive with Pittsburgh, and didn’t pitch in 2020 due to neck surgery. I do think he can bounce back a little with the return to Tampa. The back end, the Rays will deploy 2 veterans: Michael Wacha & Rich Hill. Wacha struggled mightily last year but with him now going to a pitcher friendly team, you should see him improve. He won’t be anything special, but he should be serviceable at the very least. Rich Hill seems to have gotten better with age. Since he went to Boston in 2015, he seems to have reinvented himself. The only big issue with him is that he seems to get a blister every other start that seems to sit him out for a couple weeks. 

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Tyler Glasnow

Ryan Yarbrough

Chris Archer

Michael Wacha

Rich Hill

Closer by committee

Prospects you should know

Wander Franco – the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Should debut at some point this season. Expect big things from him!

Luis Patino – the big prospect brought back in the Snell trade, has an electric arm. It seems the Rays always produces solid pitching. 

Worst case scenario – Not enough offense and Wacha and Hill regress, lack of good pitching, 4th could be a possibility

Best case scenario – I don’t think they can repeat as division champs. They could make the playoffs though.

My prediction: 3rd in AL East