2021 San Diego Padres Preview

2020 finish: 37-23, 2nd in NL West, lost 3-0 in NLDS to the Dodgers

Key additions: Yu Darvish (trade CHC), Victor Caratini (trade CHC), Blake Snell (trade TB), Ha-seong Kim (FA Korea), Jurickson Profar (re-sign), Joe Musgrove (trade PIT), Mark Melancon (FA ATL)

Key subtractions: Garrett Richards (FA BOS), Trevor Rosenthal (FA OAK), Kirby Yates (FA TOR), Mitch Moreland (FA OAK), Joey Lucchesi (trade NYM), Zach Davies (trade CHC), Luis Patino (trade TB)

Many people, myself included, thought the Padres might be a year away in 2020. Well they certainly surprised people, finishing with the 2nd best record in the National League. Midseason, they acquired Mike Clevinger from the Indians, who then required Tommy John surgery not long after. Dinelson Lamet was also dealing with injuries himself, so he was held out of the playoffs. Knowing they needed more pitching, they made three headlining trades for pitching, now, they have one of the best rotations in baseball, some saying the best. During the season, they earned the nickname Slam Diego after hitting a grand slam in 4 straight games and 5 in 6 games. Their first one drew a lot of controversy as the Padres were destroying the Rangers late in the game, which was likely out of reach. Fernando Tatis, Jr took a 3-0 pitch oppo taco which peeved Rangers manager Chris Woodword. Will San Diego stay classy if they celebrate this year?

Eric Hosmer was GM AJ Preller’s first big free agent signing a few years ago. While his production isn’t quite like it was in Kansas City, partially due to the bigger Petco Park, one of his biggest roles is being a big clubhouse leader. Since then, they have signed big free agents or made big trades seemingly every year. He’s still good for north of 20 home runs though. He also made a big improvement in 2020 and that could be because the team doesn’t have to rely on him being the main source of offense. A big chunk of the offense will come from the left side of the infield. Manny Machado signed a 10 year, $300M contract with the Padres prior to the 2019 season. Last year, he was in the running for MVP, finishing 3rd. That was mainly due to a hot finish to the 2020 season. He got off to a slow start but really picked it up after a few weeks. He should be able to carry that momentum over to 2021. With a big year from him, combined with the production from their other $300M player to his left, Padres are going to be tough to beat. That other $300M player is Fernando Tatis, Jr. He is quickly taking the league by storm. I think he is already a top 5 player in the game and he is only entering his 3rd season. He has yet to play 162 games in his career yet, this offseason they signed him to a mega contract: 14 years, $340M. This is the longest deal in the history of the game. Tatis is electric, and that’s an understatement. He is now arguably the face of the Padres and he has a very real chance to become the face of baseball. Tatis started off scorching in 2020, but tailed off late in the season a bit, which could be why he fell to 4th in MVP. This year, he is one of the favorites to win MVP, in my opinion. Provided he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce a 30-30 season. If the Padres allow him to steal a bit more, 40-40 could also be a possibility. Their spending didn’t end there. One of the best international players that became a free agent was Korea’s Ha-seong Kim. A natural shortstop, is expected to be a 2B or utility type player. When he is on the field with Machado, Tatis, and Hosmer, the Padres will have more than $800M invested between those 4 players. The thing with Kim though, is he has competition at 2B with Jake Cronenworth. Cronenworth finished 2nd in NL Rookie of the Year. With the combination of Kim and Cronenworth, the Padres production at 2B should be near the top in baseball. 

In the outfield, Tommy Pham’s future became murky, even wondering if his career was over, as he was stabbed during the offseason. When camp started, he said he was about 80% recovered. He’s doing well this spring, slashing .271/.375/.417 with 2 home runs. He should be fine with no hiccups from his injury. Pham doesn’t wow you with anything. He just does a lot of things well. He has seemingly found a home in San Diego after bouncing from St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Though he struggled last year, he has said he wants to improve his play because he knows he wasn’t at his peak performance. In center, Trent Grisham has taken a step forward. Traded from the Brewers prior to 2020, he became a gold glover and produced just as well as his rookie season. Part of me wonders if he was traded because of his 9th inning blunder in the 2019 NLWC in which the Brewers wound up losing to the Nationals. Wil Myers is one of, if not the longest, tenured Padre on the team. 2020 was arguably his best season. For years, he was the main focus of the offense. Now, hitting lower in the lineup behind guys like Tatis, Machado, and Pham, he can just concentrate on himself performing well. 

Projected lineup via Fangraphs

Trent Grisham CF

Fernando Tatis, Jr SS

Manny Machado 3B

Eric Hosmer 1B

Tommy Pham LF

Wil Myers RF

Jake Cronenworth 2B

Victor Caratini C (until Austin Nola is healthy)

As mentioned earlier, the Padres dealt with pitching issues late in the season along with the playoffs. Knowing that, they needed to make some changes. So they went out and acquired starters. Not 1, not 2, they traded for 3 starters. Yu Darvish had his best season as a Cub. Money issues drove the Cubs to trade Darvish. He instantly becomes their best pitcher. Darvish finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young and should be able to put up similar numbers this year. They also acquired a former Cy Young winner in Blake Snell. Snell had been pretty critical of Kevin Cash’s analytics. Snell was cruising through Game 6, but because he was going through the Dodger lineup a 3rd time, Cash pulled him, and the Dodgers pounced, and won the World Series. Snell has been lights out this spring. Not allowing a run in 9.1 innings to go along with 7 Ks. The 3rd starter they acquired is Joe Musgrove. While he doesn’t have the resume like Darvish and Snell, he has improved each season. He is a high strikeout guy and finally was able to put it all together last season. He has struggled a bit this spring but shouldn’t be too alarming. He doesn’t have to be the ace like the Pirates were wanting from him. He’s their 3rd starter, at best. When everyone is healthy, he might even be the 5th option. Chris Paddack was the Padres de facto ace heading into 2020 after his stellar rookie performance. I think the pressure of that got to him and that is what elevated his numbers. He’s now their 4th option, and could be pushed out once everyone is healthy, but that wouldn’t be until next season. The 5th spot will eventually go to Dinelson Lamet but he’s still coming back from injury. He finally made his 2021 Cactus League debut this past week allowing 1 run in 1 inning. He’s likely starting his season on the IL so he can ramp up work so he can be 100% when he returns. Filling in for him will likely be Adrian Morejon. Morejon is a high strikeout lefty who has come out of the pen and spot started for the Padres in his short career. 

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Yu Darvish

Blake Snell

Joe Musgrove

Chris Paddack

Adrian Morejon (until Dinelson Lamet is ready)

Prospects you should know

MacKenzie Gore – Has been compared to Clayton Kershaw, and he’s a decent pitcher. 

CJ Abrams – There are 4 highly ranked SSs in baseball, Wander Franco (TB), Marco Luciano (SF), Bobby Witt, Jr (KC), and CJ Abrams. Abrams might be the 3rd best of the bunch. Has great speed, which could set him apart from the others. 

Luis Campusano – one of the best catching prospects in the game, rising among the ranks.

Worst case scenario – Can losing in the Wild Card game be a worst case?

Best case scenario – AJ Preller has built this team to win, and win this season. Championship or bust.

My prediction – 2nd in NL West