2020 finish: 35-25, 1st in NL East, lost 4-3 to Dodgers in NLCS
Key additions: Marcell Ozuna (re-signed), Drew Smyly (FA SF), Charlie Morton (FA TB), Nate Jones (FA CIN), Jake Lamb (FA ARZ)
Key subtractions: Adam Duvall (FA MIA), Mike Foltynewicz (FA TEX), Felix Hernandez (FA BAL), Cole Hamels (FA), Shane Greene (FA), Mark Melancon (FA SD), Nick Markakis (retired)
After a heartbreaking end to 2019, when the Braves were leading 2-1 against the Cardinals in the NLDS, Yadier Molina broke the hearts of Braves fans by walking off Game 4, then the Cardinals continued that momentum by scoring 10 runs in the first, which was the biggest opening inning in history, they were poised to make another deep playoffs run. In the Wild Card round, they held the Reds scoreless in 2 games. They then swept the Marlins in the NLDS, shutting them out in 2 of the 3 games. Then in the NLCS, they were faced up against the Dodgers. After 4 games, they were up 3 games to 1. 1 win away from the World Series. They had opportunities to win, but their bullpen faltered. So can they finally get over the hump this year?
It was a rough 2020 for many, but Freddie Freeman may have had one of the worst. He was diagnosed with Covid, even reaching a point with a high fever where he wondered if he would survive. He was one of the few that had a productive season after testing positive. How productive you ask? He only won MVP. He led the majors in runs and doubles while also clubbing 13 home runs and hitting .341. Ozzie Albies is one of the most productive second basemen in the game hitting .260 or higher in each, topping out at .295 in 2019. He has some power as well and should be able to get 20 home runs once again. Dansby Swanson, a former 1st overall pick, hasn’t quite lived up to those expectations. Not to say he’s a bad player, because he’s not. Matter of fact, last year was arguably his best season to date hitting .274, hitting 10 home runs and swiping 5 bags. His 110 OPS+ was second to his rookie year. Many people around the league wondered if the Braves would improve from Austin Riley. They were in talks with the Cubs about trading for Kris Bryant and were also mentioned as a possibility for Nolan Arenado. They didn’t get either of them and Riley is back as the team’s starting 3B. The Braves were better with him on the bench as he produced a negative WAR.
In the outfield, they will bring back Marcell Ozuna on a 4 year deal. There were questions surrounding Ozuna on whether he can remain a power producing outfielder. He sure produced last year, but that may be because he spent most of his time as the team’s DH. There is no DH this season so he will be back in LF. He struggles to throw the ball and is a shell of his former Gold Glove self. It will be interesting to see how playing the field will affect his hitting. He led the NL in HR and RBI. I don’t see him replicating those numbers to that extent but he could easily reach 25 home runs. In centerfield, Christian Pache is starting to remind some fans of Andruw Jones. I think that is a bit much, especially this early. He definitely has the potential to be a great 5 tool outfielder. I see him more as a Grady Sizemore type player than Andruw Jones. I don’t think he can get to the power that Jones had. In right field, you have a top 3 player in baseball in Ronald Acuna, Jr. He won Rookie of the Year in 2018 and has also earned MVP votes in each of his 3 seasons. He is one of the favorites heading into the 2021 season. He has 40-40 potential. He would be the 5th player to do so and the first since Alfonso Soriano in 2006.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Ronald Acuna, Jr RF
Ozzie Albies 2B
Freddie Freeman 1B
Marcell Ozuna LF
Travis d’Arneau C
Dansby Swanson SS
Austin Riley 3B
Christian Pache CF
Mike Soroka would be part of the rotation if he was healthy. He’s currently recovering from a torn Achilles. He has only been throwing simulated games and will likely start the season on the Injured List. I don’t see him missing too much time though as he is nearly ready. Max Fried will be at the top of the rotation. He has continued to improve each season and has looked really sharp this spring. He could be considered the team’s ace as he finished last season with a 2.25 ERA and finished 5th in the NL in Cy Young. When Charlie Morton entered 2020, he mentioned that it could be his final season. He is obviously continuing his career and I wonder if the shortened season changed his mind since the long season didn’t take as much out of him. Ian Anderson turned a lot of heads last year. Anderson is another one of the Braves big prospect starters. He could be another top of the rotation starter but control has been somewhat of an issue. If he can hone that in, look out! Drew Smyly is a veteran leader and should provide a decent amount of innings. Don’t expect too much from him. Kyle Wright is holding the 5th spot warm until Soroka returns. Wright has been wrong so far in his young career.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Max Fried
Charlie Morton
Ian Anderson
Drew Smyly
Kyle Wright (until Mike Soroka is healthy)
Will Smith & Chris Martin – co-closers
Prospects you should know
Christian Pache – Only 22 could be another dynamic outfielder for the Braves. Elite defender in CF. Could be a 5 tool player. Reminds me of Grady Sizemore.
Ian Anderson – was nearly lights out last year debuting for the Braves. Front of the rotation starter stuff, especially if he can control his walks.Â
Drew Waters – Tell me if you’ve heard this before. The Braves have a talented outfielder. Another kid with the chance of being a 5 tool player.Â
Worst case scenario: I don’t see a lot going wrong unless their younger pitchers stunt their growth and their older pitchers start to fall apart.
Best case scenario: – This team has championship aspirations. One of the favorites to represent the National League.
My prediction – 1st in NL East
