2020 finish: 32-28, 3rd in AL East, lost 0-2 to the Rays in ALWC
Key additions: George Springer (FA HOU), Kirby Yates (FA SD), Marcus Semien (FA OAK), David Phelps (FA PHI), Steven Matz (trade NYM), Robbie Ray (re-sign)
Key subtractions: Taijuan Walker (FA NYM), Ken Giles (FA SEA), Anthony Bass (FA MIA), Travis Shaw (FA MIL), Jonathan Villar (FA NYM)
2020 was sure different for the Buffalo Blue Jays. This you, you might want to call them the Dunedin Blue Jays. Buffalo? Dunedin? Aren’t they from Toronto? They sure are! However, the Canadian government prohibited the Jays from playing in their home city last year and once again to begin this season. Last year, they lost out on some early home games before settling at their AAA park in Buffalo. This year, they’re going to stay at their spring training home in Dunedin, FL. There’s a chance they return to Toronto later in the season, but that’s up in the air. During the offseason GM Alex Anthopolos and the owners promised to go out and buy to improve their team. They sure lived up to that by going out and signing George Springer, Kirby Yates, Marcus Semien, and David Phelps while also trading for Steven Matz. They committed over $175M to their free agent signings, $150M of which is going to Springer. Will this help the Jays make another playoff push?
The Jays infield has a chance to be one of the best in the game, at least offensively. It also has a lot of bloodlines to MLB. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr is the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette is the son of Dante Bichette, and Cavan Biggio is the son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio. Not only do they have good bloodlines, they all can be great themselves. Vlad Jr was once one of the top prospects in baseball. He hasn’t quite lived up to that hype. While he put on a home run barrage in the minors, he hasn’t done that in the majors. Part of that has to do with his swing. Last season, he had the 10th lowest launch angle at 4.6o. He’s more of a line drive hitter. I think if he can increase that launch angle at least 5 degrees to where it’s closer to 10, he may have a huge power year. He’s currently projected for 27 home runs but if he can increase that launch angle, 40 home runs isn’t out of the question. The young player that has really taken over the team is Bo Bichette. The shortstop position has become a loaded position in the majors and part of that is due to the young talent influx, Bichette included. He’s currently a .307 career hitter and could get to 20-25 home runs. Health is going to play a big factor though. If he can stay healthy, watch out! Potential MVP candidate. Cavan Biggio is an interesting guy. He’s the lesser known of the young guys but did you know he is the team’s active leader in WAR? That’s only accounting for WAR accrued as a Blue Jay and is currently on the team. That surprised me when I found out. Biggio won’t hit for as high as average as Vlady or Bo, but he could also put up 20 home runs. Speaking of another potential 20 home run guy, their new 2B Marcus Semien hit 33 in his last full season in 2019. He hit 7 last year which extrapolates to 19. So he’s right there. Getting out of Oakland should only help.
In the outfield corners, you have two players who broke out in 2020. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr will be in left. He was on pace for his best season. That 60 game season he earned himself a 1.2 WAR, which his career high was 1.8, which would have been nearly a 5 win player. He can play all over the field as he has MLB experience at 1B, 2B, SS, and LF. He will be the Jays primary left fielder now. He’s another one that could be in line for 20 plus home runs. Starting to get the theme? Guess what Springer can do? He was on pace for 38 home runs last year, which would have been back to back 35+ home run seasons. In fact, he only has one season where he doesn’t have 20 home runs and that was back in 2015. The Jays are hoping Springer is that missing piece they need to get them further in the playoffs. They were the 8 seed last year. With playoffs going back to 5 teams in total,they will need to improve their play. To help with that, they need another big season from Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez exploded last year and was in MVP conversations during the season. He finished with 16 home runs that would have been 43 in a full season. Offense surely won’t be an issue for the Jays this season.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
George Springer CF
Marcus Semien 2B
Bo Bichette SS
Teoscar Hernandez RF
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr 1B
Lourdes Gurriel, Jr LF
Cavan Biggio 3B
Rowdy Tellez DH (could be a rotation of him and Grichuk)
Danny Jansen CÂ
One area the Blue Jays need to improve on is their rotation. Hyun Jin Ryu has been worth every penny so far after finishing 3rd in the Cy Young after his first season with the Jays. He has proved to remain healthy the last two seasons, which has been his issue prior. He’s going to eat you a lot of innings, strike out quite a few guys, and not walk many. However, after Ryu, things are a bit murky. Robbie Ray has a niche of striking guys out, however, he leaves the ball over the plate way too much and walks way too many guys. Last year, his walk rate skyrocketed to nearly 8 per 9 innings. If he has any chance of staying in the rotation, he needs to cut back his walks. He has done that a bit this spring, but still needs to cut back more and obviously carry it over to spring. In 8.1 innings, he’s allowed 2 earned runs, (2.16 ERA), 11 Ks & 4 walks. That is an improvement, but I would like to see him continue that in the regular season. If he can, he will be a solid addition. Steven Matz comes over from the Mets. At one point, Matz was a bright up and comer for the Mets and he had been serviceable however last year he took a big step back with a nearly 10 ERA. Everything looks good thus far in the spring. Tanner Roark is another guy that can eat innings. He doesn’t wow you with anything but can get the job done. Right now, the last spot is Ross Stripling but I expect Nate Pearson to take this over at some point. Pearson looked good in his 1 inning he threw. He won’t get the job out of spring, but come May or June, it’s likely he will be in there.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Hyun Jin Ryu
Robbie Ray
Tanner Roark
Steven Matz
Ross Stripling
Kirby Yates – closer
Prospects you should know
Nate Pearson – Electric stuff. Could push for a rotation spot out of camp. Will certainly be in there at some point in 2021.
Austin Martin – Vandy guy, some raw power, should be versatile and be a complete all around hitter
Jordan Groshans – Still has power yet to be tapped into, could play short or third
Worst case scenario – pitching after Ryu is atrocious. That’s their x-factor.
Best case scenario – This team has a division title for their goal, it’s not out of the possibility, however they need everything to go right.Â
My prediction – 2nd in AL East
