2020 finish: 30-28, 2nd in NL Central, lost 1-2 in NLWC at San Diego
Key additions: Nolan Arenado (trade COL), Adam Wainwright (re-sign), Yadier Molina (re-sign)
Key subtractions: Kolten Wong (FA MIL), Dexter Fowler (trade LAA), Austin Gomber (trade COL), Brad Miller (FA PHI), Matt Weiters (FA)
Covid ravaged the Cardinals during the season. So much so, they were scheduled to play 55 games in 52 days due to doubleheaders from games missed. If you look at their final record, they only played 58 games. That was because they didn’t need to make up the final 2 games in Detroit. Some key players tested positive with Covid: Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Lane Thomas, and Carlos Martinez all test positive. Martinez even was hospitalized. You could tell, especially with Thomas and Martinez, that Covid took a toll on their bodies and weren’t 100% when they returned. Matt Carpenter continued his regression which opened a hole at 3B. They didn’t pick up Kolten Wong’s $12.5M option, which would have been picked up had it been a normal season. That meant that Carpenter was likely going to start at 3B with Tommy Edman at 2B. For months, people wondered if the Cardinals would do something, anything. Then in a matter of a couple weeks, they re-signed Adam Wainwright, traded for Arenado, and re-signed Yadier Molina. This team was looking a whole much better. They were able to add that big bat they have been searching for. So, what Cards are in hand?
The Cardinals could likely have the best infield defense in recent memory. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado on the corners, and Yadier Molina behind the dish give the Cardinals a combined 20 Gold Gloves. That’s not to mention that DeJong is an excellent defender. Tommy Edman has flashed the leather at times too. It’s hard to believe that Paul Goldschmidt is already entering his 3rd season with the Cardinals. He has been quite productive. With the addition of Arenado likely hitting behind him, he should put up some better numbers too. The Cardinals straight up stole Arenado from the Rockies because Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has absolutely zero trade leverage. Arenado’s numbers are likely to take a little hit due to not playing half his games at Coors, but he will still put up respectable numbers that will still put him towards the top of the 3B list. Defensively, he’s an all-time great. Some have argued that he’s the best ever defensively at 3B. I’m actually curious to see how he does as a Cardinal and whether he can be better or as good as Scott Rolen. The trade to St. Louis likely cements his place in Cooperstown. Up the middle, Tommy Edman likely starts at 2B. He has been valuable as a utility player but can he have success as a starter? I think he could. For what it’s worth, when he has played at 2B, he has hit .344 with a .403 OBP. He will obviously come down from there. He has a chance to hit north of .280 with possible double digit home runs and steals. The Cardinals would sure welcome that from their leadoff hitter. Paul DeJong is a very streaky hitter. He goes on some very hot streaks and then he can go ice cold. He hit 30 home runs in 2019, his career high. He only hit 3 last year, but as mentioned before, he suffered from Covid. You could likely say his lower power production was a direct result of Covid. Then you have Yadier Molina behind the dish. There were some serious thoughts about him playing elsewhere. He’s entering his 18th season, all while donning the birds on the bat. His defensive skills are slowly deteriorating but that doesn’t mean he’s a poor defender. Many teams won’t run on Molina because they know they’re likely to be thrown out. Just a couple weeks ago, he tried to pick off Jose Siri at 1B, but was unsuccessful. Siri taunted him and Yadi dared him to steal 2nd. What does Siri do? Get caught stealing at 2B. Yadi should still be good for about .275 with around 10 home runs.
In the outfield, it’s much less established than the infield. Gone is Dexter Fowler, whom likely would have seen a reduced role anyway. Prized prospect Dylan Carlson will take his spot in right field. Carlson struggled after being called up last year. It got to a point where the Cardinals sent him back to the alternate site to get some work in. When he came back, he was a completely different player. He eventually batted cleanup late in the season and during the postseason against the Padres. I think the best spot for him in the lineup would be the 2nd spot in front of Goldy and Arenado, but I think he will start the season hitting 6th or 7th. Look for him to have a breakout year and be a front runner for the NL Rookie of the Year. In center you have Harrison Bader. Many people love him, not only because of his hair, but also for his defense. Many people also dislike Bader because he struggles hitting. Would you know that he was one of the better hitters on the team last year? He was 3rd in offensive WAR. He’s also trending in the right direction. He is in the top 20% in barrel rate. In left field, Tyler O’Neill has likely solidified the starting spot. He has been unstoppable this spring. He is 4th in the majors in OPS with 1.315 as well as leading the league in batting average at the time of this writing. He has made a major change in how he attacks the ball. He is now hitting it more towards right field. Coaches wanted him to allow the ball to travel just a bit further on him and that’s allowing him to use more of the field.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Tommy Edman 2B
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Nolan Arenado 3B
Paul DeJong SS
Yadier Molina C
Tyler O’Neill LF
Dylan Carlson RF
Harrison Bader CF
What once was a strength, now could be seen as a weakness. I’m talking about the starting rotation. Dakota Hudson had Tommy John surgery late last season and could be back last in the season. Miles Mikolas, who missed all of 2020 due to injury, has been held out this spring due to a “creaky” shoulder. While nothing structurally seems wrong, they’re going to be cautious with him. Kwang Hyun Kim has been dealing with a back issue. Now they seem to be short on starting pitching. They brought back Adam Wainwright for his 16th season. He has shown his tank hasn’t emptied yet. Not only will he be able to give valuable innings, but he will also give all the young players valuable insight as a veteran leader. Leading the rotation is Jack Flaherty. Many fans have called for the front office to trade him. I think that’s ludicrous. Why in the world would you trade your best pitcher? Many people think he won’t sign an extension. While that may be true, he has never indicated that he wouldn’t. There’s also another big reason people want to trade him, but that’s for a different article. Many people see his nearly 5 ERA as a poor pitcher. I see one very bad start in Milwaukee in a shortened season. You take that out, he has a 3.13 ERA. Different view of him now right? While he’s likely not going to be that legendary 2nd half of 2019, he could very well be a consistent sub-3.30 guy. So there’s Flaherty, Wainwright, and likely Kim, but who else? Carlos Martinez, who was fighting for a spot prior to the Mikolas injury is in the rotation. Here’s another fan favorite to hate. While he has the stuff to be elite, he just can’t seem to put it all together. I think he’s better suited for the rotation than the bullpen. The final spot likely comes down to John Gant (whom is good at baseball) and Daniel Ponce de Leon. At this point, all signs are pointing to Gant.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Jack Flaherty
Adam Wainwright
Carlos Martinez
KK Kim
John Gant
Closer by committee with Giovanny Gallegos, Alex Reyes, Jordan Hicks, & Andrew Miller
Prospects you should know
Dylan Carlson – star in the making. Most of you already know about him
Nolan Gorman – now blocked by Arenado, has taken reps at 2B. Can hit the cover off the ball. Bat will find a way in the lineup
Matthew Liberatore – High ceiling with a high floor. 3 of his 4 pitcher are above average. Front of the rotation potential.
Ivan Herrera – likely heir to Yadi. Makes hard contact and could reach double digit home runs in his peak.
Worst case scenario – with an open mind, this could be a 4th place team if the rotation continues to be an issue.
Best case scenario – I don’t see a World Series title unless a couple in season trades are made, but likely postseason team with potential for a deep run.
My prediction – 1st place NL Central
