Resting on a wall in my bedroom there is a gifted tree stump that is a quote from famed pitcher Bob Lemon, “The two most important things in life are good friends and a strong bullpen.”
Needless to say, the Cardinals probably lack good friendships and definitely lack a strong bullpen. In fact, the 2018 Cardinals are on pace to be the one of the worst in team history. In some regard, this is the worst Cardinals bullpen in the 21st century. This is no feat to have feelings of accomplishment.
Here is the current state of the bullpen (minimum 10 innings pitched), sorted by ERA- which accounts for park and league adjustments, the lower the ERA-, the better.
(Statistics as of 7/26):
Seven players are better than league average, while six are worse, some much worse than league average. Looking at Wins Above Replacement (WAR), seven relievers are either providing no value or costing the team value. The team is tied for 13th in the NL with a 4.72 ERA, 13th in the NL with a 119 ERA-, and once again, 13th in the NL with an RA/9 (Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings) of 5.18.
Delving more into the data, the Cardinals are 28th in the MLB in RA/9-WAR, which is Wins Above Replacement based upon the amount of runs a player/team allows. Collectively, Cardinals’ relievers have cost the team 2.3 Wins per RA/9, only the Marlins and Royals are worse. Lastly, they are the worst team by a full point in Win Probability Added (WPA) with a -3.58 rating. Negative is not good. This essentially means the Cardinals cannot get outs in big situations (like the Monday night game blowing Daniel Poncedeleon’s no-hit bid).
However, this piece is less about comparing the 2018 Cardinals’ bullpen with other teams, this is about the Cardinals’ bullpen over history.
Going back to WPA, since 1974 (the earliest FanGraphs has data on WPA) only the bullpens of the 1980 and the 1978 Cardinals were worse.
1980 Cardinals: -5.66 WPA (Mark Littell and George Frazier both had a WPA of -1.5 or worse)
1978 Cardinals: -4.24 WPA (Pete Vuckovich and John Urrea had a WPA worse than -1.0)
2018 Cardinals (as of 7/26): -3.58 WPA (Greg Holland currently has a WPA of -1.93, which is 8th worst since 1974, Jason Isringhausen in 2008 had the worst WPA in team history, with a -3.02 rating. Holland is on pace to reach that.)
Let’s look at some data of twenty various seasons in Cardinal history (minimum 200 relief appearances over the course of the season):
As you can see, the peripherals are not what we had expected of this team, and it will only get worse barring major changes.
Based upon the same criteria (minimum 200 relief appearances), the 2018 Cardinals are ranked among these rate statistics (1st being worst in team history).
(Data is from the 1900 season to present day):
K/9: 50th (8.43, strikeouts have spiked in recent years)
BB/9: 18th (3.84)
LOB%(Left On Base Percentage): 3rd-worst (68.8%)
RA/9: 5th-worst (5.18)
ERA: 5th-worst (4.72)
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): 18th (4.12)
RA/9-WAR: 4th-worst (-2.3)
In terms of the 21st century team rankings, the 2018 bullpen is worst in LOB%, 2nd-worst in RA/9 (2000-5.53 RA/9), 3rd-worst in ERA (2000-4.84, 2003-4.79), and worst in RA/9 WAR.
This ultimately may be one of those seasons where fellow Cardinal fans will have to endure as one of the worst ever, especially in recent memory. This will be a moment in team history that will not want to be repeated, especially in 2019.
Share your thoughts.
I am on Twitter: @RobertFrey40
(Featured image courtesy of Chat Sports).
