Carlos Martinez, arguably the Cardinals #1 starting pitcher, i.e. Ace. Not that anybody should or would argue Carlos’ status with the team. One thing that will be argued between the Cardinals and Martinez’s representatives is how much Carlos is worth, or to a better point, should be paid for the 2017 season. Per MLBTradeRumors.com reporter Matt Swartz, the record for first-time eligible pitchers was the $4.35 million that Dontrelle Willis received in 2006, until last year when Dallas Keuchel bested the mark by taking home $7.25 million after winning the Cy Young award.
That said, one would think Carlos’ true value, or worth, would be located somewhere in between Willis and Keuchel’s precedents. One idea would seem to be to lock up Martinez and avoid arbitration, given the fact that he turned 25 years of age in June of 2016, and the Cardinals have taken this path with several of their players, including All-Star Matt Carpenter. Carlos Martinez has a lifetime 34-21 record with the Cardinals with a solid 3.32 ERA. Additionally, Carlos has electric stuff that makes him a high strikeout pitcher (174 Ks in 195 1/3 innings pitched in 2016; 8 Ks per 9 innings pitched ratio).
The one thing that may give the Cardinals pause is Carlos’ tendency to lose control of his pitches on the mound as evidenced by his eight wild pitches and 70 walks in 2016, which gives him an inflated ratio of 3.2 walks per 9 innings ratio. Typically, as pitchers get older, they tend to get their stuff under better control, but given the fact that the Cardinals stand to enter arbitration with Carlos would seem to indicate that there may be concern by the team to commit a long term investment.
The obvious risks the Cardinals take on going to Arbitration with Carlos are significant. It may be a dissuading factor in weather when the time comes for Carlos to sign long term with the organization, and could cause hard feelings, especially given the fact that the Cardinals always tend to try an avoid arbitration at all costs. Another risk is that Carlos ends up having a Dallas Keuchel type season, and his price rises exponentially, potentially pricing him outside of the Cardinals comfort zone.
On the other hand, the risk the Cardinals run with giving a long term deal to a 25 year old pitcher is significant as well. Carlos is undoubtedly one of the hardest throwing pitchers the Cardinals have, and has already been shut down with shoulder soreness back in 2015. Also, one has to give at least a little credence to the fact that Carlos, at times, can lose control of his pitches, which leads to missed location resulting more walks, and at times, extra base hits.
Thus the Cardinals have a significant decision to make, to arbitrate or not to arbitrate, that my friends, is a question that depending on the Cardinals answer and thus the results, could change the outlook of the franchise in the coming seasons.
