The St. Louis Cardinals are interested in the soon-to-be 31 year-old, south-paw, Jon Lester. The former Red Sox and soon to be former Athletic will be hitting the market at the best time to hit the market. Lester is coming off the best season of his career going 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA and 220 strikeouts combined with Boston and Oakland. The market around him has never had so much revenue available. Giancarlo Stanton was just inked for $325 million. Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera also signed for massive extension numbers. Lester has to have a smile on his face because he is going to get paid and play for whom he wants to play for.
St. Louis and General Manager John Mozeliak have money to spend, and there is a demeanor about Mo that seems that Cardinals will do something unprecedented this off-season. One could make the argument that they already did in trading Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward, though the Cardinals may be looking for a Heyward extension they might be looking for a pitcher to pair with Wainwright, Wacha and Lynn.
The Cardinals have a need for starting pitching, as evidenced by their deadline deals for John Lackey and Justin Masterson. Masterson will be going to a new team but Lackey will be pitching for the Cardinals. Lackey has been solid 4th or 5th starter the past two seasons. His ERA is under 4.00 for the past two seasons, though his stint with the Cardinals was not the best. Yet, he is pitching for the league minimum, he will eat innings and has a solid postseason track record. Adam Wainwright, the ace of the staff, whom enjoyed a fantastic 2014 campaign had arm surgery in the off-season after a rough September and postseason. Michael Wacha had his own arm issues and there are many question marks about how he will pitch this upcoming season. Lance Lynn put together a complete 2014 season and has been a workhorse for the club. Martinez will be slotted into the 5th spot in the rotation and it will be his spot to lose if the Cardinals do not make a move in free agency.
The city of Boston wants Jon Lester back, the Red Sox want Jon Lester back and I believe that Jon Lester wants to be back, but wants to be respected by his own organization even more so. Lester turned down a 4 year, $70 million extension from the club back in March. The offer was so low that Lester would not open the doors to discuss a new contract. According to Nick Cafardo, the Sox offered Lester a 6-year $120-$130 million dollar contract. This is deemed to be lower than market value. This does not put the Red Sox out of the discussion, but it certainly opens the door for other clubs to step in and take a chance at the lefty.
This is the opportunity for the Cardinals break out of their routine of passing on high-priced free agents and make a run at the 2015 World Series by signing Jon Lester. Now, what Madison Bumgarner did with the Giants was unprecedented, it was historic, it was magic. Yet, one guy led the way for a team. The Cardinals can use this opportunity to put two front-end guys, when healthy, at opposing teams. Lester and Wainwright could be those guys and the Cardinals haven’t had a dominate left-handed pitcher since…since who? Jaime Garcia continues to have arm trouble and won’t be that guy anytime soon. If Wacha can stay healthy it would be a dominate front three that could change a playoff dynamic for a team.
Lester will turn 31 in January and a six-year deal would not be the worst amount of years the Cardinals could do. If they wish to pry him from other teams like the Braves, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants then the Cardinals need to consider adding a 7th year to the contract. Or they need to consider going 6 years for $150 million. That would be an AAV of $25 million, the Cardinals have the money to make this move. They should get more money assuming they can get a TV contract worthy of the club. It’s there, they can spend it and should spend it. Wainwright is currently 33, even with the arm trouble if he could pitch like a No. 2 starter the Cards could run out Lester, Wainwright and Wacha for two or three seasons and postseasons. If the Cardinals sign him it would also keep a front-end starter away from the Chicago Cubs who are a couple years away from contending but I’m certain they would not like to see Lester in a Cubs uniform.
Now is the time for the Cards and Mo to strike big. Lester could be the guy. St. Louis fans would love to have him along with the organization. The Cards would make Lester feel at home and they could compete for titles year-in and year-out with him. Will the Cardinals finally do the unthinkable when it comes to free agents? Time will tell but the opportunity has never been bigger.
5 comments
people forget Bumgarner left his last start against the Cards behind 3-2. He wasn’t great that day. Neshek let him off the hook.
Lester has a 6-year, $120M offer on the table from Boston. No way Mozeliak is going to match or exceed that offer. Don’t plan on seeing Lester with the Birds-on-the-Bat anytime soon.
There is no doubt that Lester would be worth every penny he is paid. However, without a team behind him that can score runs consistently and in the clutch, it doesn’t make any difference how good he pitches. If in retrospect the 2015 Cardinals are more like the 2014 Cardinals than they were the 2013 Cardinals, then it won’t matter, because without run support, even the best pitcher can’t win a game alone. Is Heyward the missing piece in the puzzle, that will solve that problem, to be honest, I am no sure. To majority of fans who watch and love Cardinal baseball, even after winning the Central Division, it wasn’t the type of season that we had been promised, or was expecting. There were a lot of let downs, and games that left the team limping off the field after a 1-0, or a 2-1 loss. Without runs crossing the plate, what looks like a good team on paper isn’t worth much when October comes around.
One of the big question I am forced to ask is, “Does the Cardinals now have a team that can score runs, score runs consistently, and give their good pitchers a chance to win, even when they aren’t having their best of days.” If 2014 is a reflection of what we will see in 2015, then I am not sure they do, even with the addition of Heyward. If that is the case, then spending long term big money on a pitcher like Lester, might be a bad investment. If how ever, the Cardinals can start off on a different foot, and produce runs right out of the gate, and consistently produce runs throughout the season, and for the foreseeable near future, then he would be worth the investment. This is the decision that Mo and the front office has to evaluate, and then decide, in order for them to justify spending $130-$150 mil. on Lester for the next 6 or 7 years. .
I understand fans wanting a big move. It’s that way with fans of every team. But Mo has a formula that has been working for quite some time now. He was forced to veer from that formula when Oscar died. Will that be the one and only time this off season that he does? Hard to know at this point. Lester is a very good pitcher and i don’t believe Mo will get into a bidding war for him. It’s not his style.
I believe Mo, if he goes after a pitcher, will look more at Ervin Santana. The length of the contract and the AAV will be more in line for the Cards.
The length of the contract is way too long. Look at Garcia’s contract. That turned out to be stupid money. Mo is way too smart to invest $20+ mil a yr. in a guy who plays every fifth game and will be 31. Wake up people. This is the post PED era and no one can be expected to perform well after age 35. Thus anything more than a 4 year deal would be a huge mistake. Let some other fool eat that contract after age 35. If you have any doubts just look at the great players in the 1960’s and what they did after age 35. It’s all downhill. It was very rare to find anyone playing on much more than reputation after that.
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