Just a short post today to get back into the swing of things.
John Lackey has an excellent Post Season history, but it’s just that, history. The past is only a tiny indicator of what can happen in the present.
This season he’s struggled a bit for us since his acquisition around the trade deadline. Meanwhile Shelby Miller has turned things around thanks to an improved sinker and increased usage of his curveball.
Here’s their respective stats since The beginning of September:
Lackey
            ERA     WHIP
September    4.43      1.388
Miller
            ERA      WHIP
September   1.48      0.857
This is over five starts for Miller and four for Lackey, respectively.
Therefore momentum appears to be on Millers side. While I realize momentum can also be a little controversial, it’s not as bad, in my mind, as trusting a guy for what he’s done in previous years and disregarding recent history.
Of course there’s another factor, one which favors Lackey, and that’s exposure. Being a guy who’s pitched mostly in the AL, the Dodgers haven’t seen much of him, if at all. (I’m not sure if they’ve faced him in inter-league match-ups or not) Miller has only pitched in the NL in his brief career, so the Dodgers have seen him a few times.
Even with that though, I still think that you should ride the hot hand, and that’s Miller.
I hope I’m wrong.
While I’m here, let me just say that I’m really looking forward to the Baltimore vs. Kansas City series, and I have a favorite, but I’ll go into more detail on that one in a post here soon. The bottom line is though, that if it shapes up the way I think it will, it’ll be a fun series.
As always, thanks for reading.
4 comments
miller is pitching better right now but the dodgers are talking about kershaw coming back in game 4 so let lackey go in game 3
Either way he’s going to pitch in this seris. If we were down 0-2 I say send Miller, but it’s tied and I think Lackey will do fine. It’s the bats I worry about.
Momentum may not mean a thing. Look at what Waino did in September (NL player of the month). Then look what happened in game 1. I don’t have much faith in Lackey either, and I am a huge Miller fan, but momentum may not mean anything.
I am ok with Lackey starting over Miller, provided he is on a short leash, with Wacca ready to give us 3-4 innings if needed; if we win, then Miller can close us out for game 4, and we can save Waino if we need him to go to game 5.
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