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You Can’t Script October

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Win game one. That’s what the Cardinals need to do. Win game one. A lot of emphasis gets put on a team winning a series or having to win several games in a row. It all starts with one game. That being said, with Clayton Kershaw on the bump for the Dodgers, game one might be the most challenging thing the Cards have done in 2014. Or is it?

It almost seems as if the Cardinals can’t do things the conventional way. If you recall the 2006 season, Pujols went down with an oblique injury. Chris Carpenter was out with a hernia. Highly touted rookie pitcher Anthony Reyes was optioned to Memphis because he wasn’t getting the job done. Sidney Ponson got released. The Cardinals had big holes to fill. Then, towards the end of the season, the Cards got healthy and hot. Players like John Rodriguez and Ronnie Belliard proved to be valuable. Anthony Reyes looked really strong at the end of the year when he was recalled. Jeff Weaver was flat out nasty in October. And the little man, David Eckstein, was the biggest man on the roster during the Redbirds championship run.

The path to the 2011 World Series wasn’t exactly a walk in the park either. The Cards fought an uphill battle from day 1. Cardinal Nation’s heart sank when the club announced Adam Wainwright would miss the entire season and undergo Tommy John surgery. Ryan Franklin didn’t help out the cause by blowing saves left and right and posting an ERA of 8.46. Prospects David Freese and Allen Craig both missed time due to injuries. And Colby Rasmus refused to buy into the team concept the Cardinals are so well known for. Again, the Birds had to fight through adversity. Lance Lynn was called up from the minors and gave St Louis a lift when he helped stabilize the back-end of the bullpen. Rasmus was dealt to Toronto for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepcynski. Jason Motte was settling in nicely as the team’s new stopper. Seemingly overnight, the Cardinals bullpen woes were corrected. The starting pitching, anchored by Chris Carpenter, was more than solid. Allen Craig stepped up and filled Matt Holliday’s shoes and David Freese… Well, we remember what David Freese did.

Now take it to 2014. This season has not gone according to the script whatsoever. Adam Wainwright is the only person on the roster that lived up to expectations this year. Offensively, the Cards don’t look anywhere close to the ’13 ball club. This team is loaded with underachievers. Kolten Wong, Peter Bourjos and Allen Craig were all off to dreadful starts. Wong was sent down to Memphis, Bourjos was replaced primarily in center by Jon Jay. And Allen Craig was dealt to Boston along with Joe Kelly for John Lackey in a move that didn’t sit well with most of Cardinal Nation. And possibly the biggest blow to the Cardinals this season, Michael Wacha missed two months with a shoulder injury. After looking up for most of the year to Milwaukee, the Cards started playing ball. They weathered the storm when Molina was out for 40 games and got really quality play from newcomer AJ Pierzynski. Wong stepped up and went on a rampage shortly after he was recalled from Triple-A. Matt Holliday finally showed up after the all-star break and slugged 14 homers in the second half. Oscar Taveras and Randal Grichuk did a serviceable job in right after Craig was shipped off. Matt Carpenter did a solid job at the top of the order, again. And Jhonny Peralta, the one major question mark coming into the season, proved to be the one offensively consistent thing all season. Aside from Wainwright, Lance Lynn had a great year. He looks to have turned the corner and harnessed his emotions. Shelby Miller bounced back from a very poor first half by reeling off a handful of solid starts down the stretch. Rosenthal and Neshek were great all year, and were joined by the likes of Sam Freeman and Seth Maness, who really turned out to be difference makers this season.

I wrote that to say this. Nobody has a clue what’s going to happen next. Any baseball expert or analyst that gives you a prediction and a reason why that team will win is wasting their breath, and wasting your time. Clayton Kershaw could go out and get shelled in the first inning or throw a no hitter. In ’06, St Louis barely squeaked into the postseason. In ’11, The Cards came back late in the season to overtake the Braves for a wild card spot. Neither time were the Cardinals close to being favorites. October is not about the best team. It’s about the hottest team. And right now, you’ll be hard pressed to find a team playing better all-around baseball than the St Louis Cardinals.

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