Five Trade Deadline Scenarios: St. Louis Cardinals

As I write this, there are about 30 hours left until the MLB non-waiver trade deadline. This season, more-so than others, we have heard the St. Louis Cardinals’ name connected to just about every pitcher on the open market. That’s no surprise given the amount of inures and ineffective starters the Cardinals have had to deal with in 2014, but for all the rumors the closest thing the Cards have come to in terms of a deal is now-Giants starter Jake Peavy. Here’s a lightning-round of the available pitchers the Cardinals are probably most likely to pursue, what each might cost, and what the situation would be moving forward:

David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Obviously, Price is the Golden Goose on the market this year. A month ago, it seemed much more likely that Price might get moved than it does now. Price’s Rays looked all but finished in June before a hot streak catapulted them in to the thick of the division/wild card race. It will cost the Cards a pretty penny, and then some, to acquire Price, probably more than John Mozeliak wants to/should give up. Rays GM Andrew Friedman has said that he will sell Price “at 200% mark-up or not at all”. Price will become a free agent after the 2015 season and will likely command a Felix Hernandez-esque contract. The Dodgers, Orioles, and Blue Jays have shown interest as well

Potential Package: Oscar Taveras, Stephen Piscotty, Kolten Wong, Shelby Miller, 2015 competitive balance pick, the blood of the innocent, Mozeliak’s first born, tears of a gypsy, dragon eggs.

Likelihood: 10%

Jon Lester, LHP, Boston Red Sox

With his team languishing in the AL East cellar, his contract expiring at the end of the season, and the comment already made that he would consider returning to Boston as a free agent even after a trade, Lester is as available as anyone. He was scratched from his start today and could have a new home when he wakes up tomorrow. Lester can be looked at as the poor man’s David Price, but every second that Price doesn’t get dealt is a second that Lester’s value rises. It’s hard to say exactly what Red Sox GM Ben Cherington would ask of the Cardinals, but pitching and outfield depth would have to be at the top of the BoSox list and the Cardinals have both in droves. Cherington has stated that he wants “at least two elite-level prospects” in exchange for Lester, which is a large price to pay for a potential two-month rental. Lester loves Boston and I personally feel that no matter what happens, he will be the Red Sox opening day starter next year. Proceed with caution.

Potential Package: Carlos Martinez (originally drafted by Red Sox), Stephen Piscotty, and Carson Kelly or Allen Craig.

Likelihood: 30%

Cole Hamels, LHP, Phillies

There’s a lot to like about Hamels. He comes with team control (4 years, $96 mil left on his deal), he’s left handed, he has produced at least a 4 WAR season in every campaign of his career except 2009, his wife is from Buffalo, MO, and he’s a solid clubhouse guy. The bad part about Hamels will be dealing with Phillies GM/tyrant Reuben Amaro Jr., who behaves like the Phillies glory years of 2008-2011 should give him carte-blanche to be able to drive his team into the ground until they more resemble the Phillies of the late 90’s. Amaro over-values his players as much as any GM in baseball. He is currently asking for “three elite prospects” and then some for anyone who wants to take Hamels home. It would likely take a David Price-esque package to get him, in which case Mozeliak would probably just…go get Price. The big difference is that the Cardinals could make this deal without having to give up Oscar Taveras. The same probably cannot be said of Price.

Potential Package: Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Shelby Miller, James Ramsey

Likelihood: 20%

A.J. Burnett, RHP Phillies

After a late-career resurgence the past two seasons in Pittsburgh, Burnett has regressed back to the mean in his first (and likely only) season in Philly. While he does currently lead the league in bases on balls and his strikeout totals are down, he is more than capable of eating innings and succeeding in a pitcher’s park like Busch. The danger with Burnett if he is traded is that he has a $15mm player option on his contract for 2015 that I would assume no one wants to touch. If you’re looking for what Burnett has to offer, there are cheaper and lower maintenance alternatives on the market.

Potential Package: Patrick Wisdom, Eric Fornataro

Likelihood: 10%

Bartolo Colon, RHP, Mets

This toad just won’t stop. Colon looked finished after posting a 6.34 ERA at age 35 in 2009, and then again when he missed 2010 completely at age 35. Yet here he is, posting a second consecutive quality season at age 41 after dominating in Oakland and finishing sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2013. Colon has learned to pitch with diminished velocity, working his two-seamer in and out of the zone and maintaining a low walk total. He makes $9mm this season and $11mm in 2015. The Mets have said they will eat $2mm of his contract in order to get a heftier return on the right hander. The currently soft market for Colon might make him the most sensible option for the Cardinals, especially if Mozeliak believes Michael Wacha will return this season. You would hope he continues on with whatever PED’s he is cycling at the moment, though (I joke…kind of).

Potential Package: Shane Robinson, Tyler Lyons

Likelihood: 25%

There’s also some sleeper guys available like Justin Masterson of the Indians, Ian Kennedy of the Padres, and Cliff Lee of the Phillies, although those three have a little bit more uncertainty surrounding their perceived value by their respective clubs. If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on one of the innings-eaters like Burnett, Colon, or Kennedy. Mozeliak is trying to develop an endless pipeline of talent, and historically the Cards don’t unload multiple elite prospects on deadline deals ever, really. Even in the Matt Holliday trade Brett Wallace was the only player they gave up that carried future All-Star potential. If Michael Wacha really is coming back, the Birds just need an arm to weather the storm until that happens.

Thanks for reading. Let me know what you think.